Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 11/1/2024
News and analysis from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Middle East
General
Two UN agencies have released their “Hunger Hotspots” forecast, covering through May 2025. From the executive summary:
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) warn that acute food insecurity is projected to worsen across 16 hunger hotspots during the outlook period from November 2024 to May 2025, including a total of 14 countries and 2 regional clusters which comprise 8 countries. The Sudan, Palestine, South Sudan, Haiti and Mali remain at the highest concern level. These are countries/territories with Famine or Risk of Famine, or with populations already in Catastrophe (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification [IPC]/Cadre Harmonisé [CH] Phase 5), necessitating the most urgent attention. Chad, Lebanon, Myanmar, Mozambique, Nigeria, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen are classified as hotspots of very high concern, where large numbers of people are facing or are projected to face critical levels of acute food insecurity. This situation is driven by escalating factors that threaten to deepen already life-threatening conditions. Since the May 2024 edition, Kenya, Lesotho, Namibia and the Niger have been added to the hunger hotspots list, while Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Somalia, Zambia and Zimbabwe remain designated as hunger hotspots.
Anastasia Nesvetailova and Herman Mark Schwartz at Post-Neoliberalism: “Can the Global South Prosper While the Neoliberal Order Is on Edge?”
Sahel and West Africa
In Senegal, the convoy of Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko was attacked as he campaigns in advance of the November 17 legislative elections.
A growing number of French citizens with African origins see Africa, rather than France, as their future.
In Mali, the head of the prison guards’ union criticized the government - and then disappeared. More here.
France24’s Wassim Nasr interviewed the Malian jihadist leader Amadou Kouffa. The Malian researcher Boubacar Ba provides analysis here.
Human Rights Watch has a new report on the jihadist massacre at Barsalogho, Burkina Faso in August 2024.
Ghana is holding general elections on December 7. Washington appears worried - the State Department has already announced a “new visa restriction policy…that will restrict U.S. visas for any individual responsible for undermining democracy in Ghana.”
Nina Wilén at the Egmont Institute: “What’s Brewing in Benin? Security Collaboration in the Gulf of Guinea.”
Raoul Sumo Tayo in African Affairs: “Itinerary of a Christian Ex-Boko Haram Bomb Maker in Cameroon.”
At Le Monde, Carol Valade reports on the aftermath of an October 27 attack by a Boko Haram faction targeting a military base in Chad.
Ben Ezeamalu at The Africa Report: “Nigeria: Tinubu’s Northern Support Base Turning Against Him Over Blackouts.”
North Africa
French President Emmanuel Macron paid a state visit to Morocco on October 28. Le Monde summarizes: “Amid a tense geopolitical climate, marked by Macron's July approval of Morocco's autonomy plan for the disputed Western Sahara and migration rows between Paris and Rabat, Macron's visit serves to mend diplomatic ties, despite tensions with Algeria.“
The UN Security Council has renewed, for another year, the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara.
At Jeune Afrique, Akram Torki reports on strikes by medical school students in both Morocco and Algeria.
Reuters: “Italy's Eni and BP Resume Onshore Drilling in Libya After 10-Year Hiatus, NOC Says.”
Tunisia’s economic growth for 2024 is projected to be a meagre 1.3%.
Greater Horn of Africa
A visual investigation from the Financial Times: “Fierce Fighting Has Gripped Sudan. Hospitals Are in the Line of Fire.”
Kaamil Ahmed at The Guardian:
Sudanese militia have been accused of killings, sexual violence, looting and arson during eight days of attacks on villages south of Sudan’s capital, Khartoum.
The UN said there were reports of “gross human rights abuses” linked to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) group, which has escalated attacks on civilians in el-Gezira state since the area’s key commander was reported to have defected to government forces on 20 October.
The UN news item on this story is here.
Evelyne Musambi for AP:
A high court in Kenya cleared the way Thursday for a new deputy president to take office despite a continuing court case challenging the impeachment of the previous deputy president.
The three-judge High Court in Nairobi set aside another court’s order to suspend the swearing-in of nominee Kithure Kindiki, arguing that the suspension created a political vacuum.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua was impeached and removed from office by a vote of more than two-thirds of legislators on Oct. 17 on charges of corruption, inciting ethnic divisions and support for anti-government protests. President William Ruto nominated Kindiki, the current interior minister, for the deputy role the next day.
Gerrit Kurtz at African Arguments: “As Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed continues to renege on the Pretoria Agreement that ended hostilities two years ago, infighting within the TPLF further threatens the tenuous stability in war-shattered Tigray.”
Mashriq
Hezbollah’s new leader is Naim Qassem.
Pauline Rouquette at France24: “After Banning UNRWA, Israel Has Yet to Propose Alternative Aid Structure for Palestinians.”
Adam Lowenstein at DeSmog: “‘Money in Exchange for Silence’: Behind Neom’s Green Image, Western Firms Cash in on Saudi Commitment to Oil.”
Iraqis are being subjected to torture and other ill-treatment as well as enforced disappearance after being arrested in Al-Jed’ah Community Rehabilitation Centre in northern Iraq, Amnesty International said in a new investigation.
[…]
Many Iraqis have been transferred to Al-Jed’ah Centre from Al-Hol detention camp in north-east Syria, where tens of thousands are being arbitrarily detained as a result of their alleged links to the Islamic State (IS) armed group. Since 2021, an estimated 9,500 people have been returned to Iraq from Al-Hol. The Iraqi authorities are considering scaling up the return of Iraqis in Al-Hol – estimated at more than 18,000 – so that the vast majority are transferred by the end of 2027.
In the shadow of a potential major escalation between Iran and Israel, Bahrain has hosted an Iranian chief diplomat for the first time in 17 years. Meanwhile, in another first—and amid tension over three disputed islands—Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has met his Iranian counterpart. The session notably took place even as Abu Dhabi was not among regional capitals recently toured by Iran’s chief diplomat. Speaking on condition of anonymity, informed Iranian political sources told Amwaj.media that the lack of a visit to the UAE was deliberate and triggered by the territorial dispute. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been among the observers of a joint Iranian-Omani-Russian naval exercise in the Indian Ocean, with talk of possible Iranian-Saudi drills in the Red Sea.
At Orient XXI, Shervin Ahmadi reports on the atmosphere in Tehran.