Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 12/13/2024
News and analysis from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Middle East.
Last week’s links can be found here.
Sahel and West Africa
In Ghana, former President John Mahama (previously served 2012-2017) won the December 7 presidential elections. At the BBC, Thomas Naadi reports on Ghanaians’ “high expectations”:
As Mahama's supporters celebrated his victory, Belinda Amuzu - a teacher in the northern city of Tamale, a stronghold of Mahama - summed up their hopes.
"I'm expecting the new government to change the economy, so that the hardship will come down. He should also prosecute corrupt officials so that it will be a lesson to others," she told the BBC.
"The hardship" has become a common phrase in Ghana since the economy hit rock-bottom in 2022, causing a cost-of-living crisis that shredded [ruling party candidate Mahamudu] Bawumia's reputation as an "economic whizz-kid" - and led to his defeat at the hands of Mahama.
Nina Wilén at Egmont Institute: “A Break with the Past: The End of French Military Presence in Chad and Senegal.”
In Mali, the Constitutional Court will no longer proclaim election results, as that task shifts to the Independent Authority for Election Management - all part of complex maneuvers that appear to be setting the scene for a junta-dominated election eventually. Meanwhile, 11 opponents of the junta were released last week.
Since May 2024, Malian armed forces and the Wagner Group have deliberately killed at least 32 civilians, including 7 in a drone strike, forcibly disappeared 4 others, and burned at least 100 homes in military operations in towns and villages in central and northern Mali. Two Islamist armed groups, the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimeen, JNIM) and of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), have summarily executed at least 47 civilians and displaced thousands of people since June. The JNIM has also burned over 1,000 homes and looted thousands of livestock. Human Rights Watch received credible reports of hundreds more civilians killed, but due to the difficulties of conducting research in central and northern Mali, the numbers in this report are conservative.
A jihadist attack in Niger on December 10 killed upwards of 100 soldiers and 50 civilians, in one of the deadliest incidents in the entire conflict there.
Taiwo Adebayo for the Associated Press: “In Nigeria’s Lithium Boom, Many Mines Are Illegal and Children Do Much of the Work.”
Isaac Osuoka at Africa Is a Country: “Shell's so-called divestment from Nigeria’s Niger Delta is a calculated move to evade accountability, leaving behind both environmental and economic devastation.”
North Africa
Morocco, Portugal, and Spain will host the 2030 World Cup. Saudi Arabia will host in 2034.
Congolese President Denis Sassou Nguesso, who heads the African Union High-Level Committee on Libya, visited Tripoli and Benghazi this week.
A new “strategic route” will link Chad, Libya, and Egypt.
At Jeune Afrique, Lilia Blaise reports about pro-Palestinian workshops and events in Tunisia, and the broader question of how pro-Palestinian activists in North Africa are experimenting with paths forward. On a related note, Middle East Eye reports on a case in Morocco:
A court in Morocco sentenced a local member of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement to one year in prison and a fine of $500 on Tuesday for calling for a protest over the kingdom's normalisation with Israel.
Ismail Ghazaoui was prosecuted for "incitement to commit crimes" for planned protest in front of the US consulate in Casablanca to denounce "Zionist crimes supported by the United States".
Also from Middle East Eye: Elodie Farge on how Algeria and Tunisia are reacting to the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.
Algeria’s Finance Ministry wants better control over the informal economy.
The National Union of Tunisian Journalists has created a guide to help journalists facing legal cases.
Greater Horn of Africa
Al Jazeera: “Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed on a joint declaration to resolve their dispute over the breakaway Somaliland region and land-locked Ethiopia’s push for sea access, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced.” On Twitter, Harun Maruf posted the text of the agreement. Does the deal diminish the prospects for recognition of Somaliland by the United States under Trump? Maybe not. At Semafor, Yinka Adegoke reports that “support for the region has grown strong among Republican US-Africa policy leaders on Capitol Hill, right-leaning Washington DC think tanks, and likely Africa advisors of Trump’s incoming White House.” At International Crisis Group, meanwhile, Omar Mahmood highlights the complexities surrounding the recent presidential elections in Somaliland:
The vote and its aftermath underlined Somaliland’s standing as a consolidating democracy with a reputation for political stability while the peaceful transfer of power marked a welcome outcome in the Horn of Africa, where such handovers are a rare occurrence. That said, the run-up to the vote was far from smooth, due to rising internal tensions and an unresolved conflict in the east. The harassment of government critics and the concentration of political power in the hands of a single clan also fuel concerns as to the degree of openness in Somaliland’s political system.
International Crisis Group: “Fighting Climate Change in Somalia’s Conflict Zones.” One key line: “The government should consider making climate resilience a central part of its efforts to engage Al-Shabaab in talks.”
ACLED: “Mapping Sudan’s Major Conflict Trends in 2024.”
Norwegian Refugee Council: “Bursting at the Seams: The Impact of War and Displacement on Sudan's Eastern Cities.”
Abdi Latif Dahir at the New York Times: “Rage Grows Over a Spate of Brutal Murders of Women in Kenya.”
Billy Perrigo in Time:
Two lawsuits…are attempting to set a new precedent in Kenya, which is the prime destination for tech companies looking to farm out digital work to the African continent.
The two-year legal battle stems from allegations of human rights violations at an outsourced Meta content moderation facility in Nairobi, where employees hired by a contractor were paid as little as $1.50 per hour to view traumatic content, such as videos of rapes, murders, and war crimes. The suits claim that despite the workers being contracted by an outsourcing company, called Sama, Meta essentially supervised and set the terms for the work, and designed and managed the software required for the task. Both companies deny wrongdoing and Meta has challenged the Kenyan courts' jurisdiction to hear the cases. But a court ruled in September that the cases could each proceed. Both appear likely to go to trial next year, unless the Kenyan Supreme Court intervenes.
French President Emmanuel Macron is set to visit Djibouti and Ethiopia from December 20-22.
Mashriq
Here are the six best pieces I’ve read on Syria this week:
Timour Azhari, Maya Gebeily, and Tom Perry at Reuters: “Syrian Rebel Leader, after Assad's Ouster, Tightens His Grip on the State.” Azhar also posted video of his interview with new Damascus Governor Mohammed Ghazal.
Raya Jalabi and Sarah Dadouch at the Financial Times: “The Department of Flags: Syrian Rebels Lay Bare Assad’s Corrupt State.”
Matthew Petti at Reason: “Syria's Rojava Revolution Is in Grave Danger.”
Jeremy Scahill and Sharif Abdel Kouddous at Drop Site: “Israel Expands Invasion of Syria, Launching Massive Airstrikes After Assad's Fall.”
Nicole Grajewski at Carnegie Endowment’s Diwan: “Why Did Iran Allow Bashar al-Assad’s Downfall?”
And, relatedly, Ali Hashem and Mohammad Ali Shabani at Amwaj: “Inside Story: Hezbollah, Iran and the Downfall of Assad.”
Hugh Lovatt and Muhammad Shehada for the European Council on Foreign Relations: “Dealing with Trump, Israel, and Hamas: The Path to Peace in the Middle East.” An excerpt:
Faced with the desperate situation on the ground, Israeli obstructionism, and a lack of viable options for what comes next, European states need to urgently work to create the conditions for successful ceasefire negotiations and a positive vision for Gaza’s future. To date, Europeans have spent the war offering numerous statements but have ultimately been wholly marginal to political talks and contributed very little to bringing the conflict to an end, despite mobilising €988m to support Palestinian humanitarian needs. In fact, European countries such as Germany have actively sustained the war in Gaza and Netanyahu’s rejection of a viable ceasefire deal by supporting Israeli actions and increasing weapons deliveries (which stood at €326.5m of German weapons sales in 2023 – a tenfold increase from the previous year).
The BBC reports on Kuwait’s removal of citizenship for over 2,000 people.
Photojournalist Giles Clarke documents his roadtrip across Iraq for Rolling Stone, focusing on the aftermath of the Islamic State’s reign:
During one stop on my trip, in a more rural area outside of Kirkuk called Hawija, I visited a man’s farm. He was happy to have his land. There was a spirit of gratefulness about him and relief, as with so many of the people I met. There’s a genuine desire to just get on with it, move ahead, and provide for their families. At the same time, this man pulled out his phone rather suddenly to show me something. It was a video of ISIS slashing his son’s throat. Stunned, I asked him, through a translator, “Why are you showing me this?” He smiled faintly and said, "I'm showing it to you because people must know what happened, not only to my son but to the people here, by ISIS. We have been through this horror, which is why the world needs to know."
AP: “Trump Organization Leases Brand to 2 New Projects in Saudi Arabia.”