Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 3/7/2025
News and analysis from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Middle East
You can find last week’s links here.
Sahel and West Africa
According to Guinea’s transitional Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah, the country will see a “return to constitutional order” some time this year, after being under military rule since 2021.
Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Embalo will seek a second term. His mandate expired on February 27, amid a protracted political crisis; elections will be held this November, after Embalo delayed them from last November.
Joost Bastmeijer in Volkskrant on Mauritania’s camel brigade. The article is in Dutch, which I do not read, but as Catagay Cebe notes, the photographs by Guy Peterson are incredible.
At The Africa Report, Laura-Angela Bagnetto and Kent Mensah interview Ghana’s special envoy to the Alliance of Sahel States, Larry Gbevlo-Lartey.
The suspension of school meals in parts of Mali, due to funding gaps, is affecting over 100,000 pupils. Relatedly, conditions for teachers are very bad in the north.
Mali’s ex-Prime Minister Moussa Mara was summoned to the Supreme Court as the controversial 2014 purchase of a presidential aircraft continues to reverberate in Malian politics.
Hassane Koné for the Institute for Security Studies: “Civil Society Needs a Role in Mali’s Security Reforms.”
Burkina Faso moves to keep a closer eye on civil servants.
Issoufou Magagi at Tamtam Info on fuel shortages in Niger.
Tensions between teachers’ unions and Niger’s authorities.
In Togo, President Faure Gnassingbé has named 20 senators to the 61-member body, after February elections that the ruling party dominated. Togo, under its new (2024) constitution, is formally transitioning to a parliamentary system, although the constitution also effectively removed presidential term limits and likely ultimately strengthens Gnassingbé’s control.
AFP: “The retail price of petrol in Nigeria has dropped to 860 naira ($0.57) per litre, as a major local refinery drives down prices in a country long forced to import its gasoline.”
Chadian authorities released two Central African rebel leaders, Abakar Sabone et Mahamat Al-Khatim, who were detained in N’Djamena 11 months ago.
North Africa
Hannah Armstrong in Foreign Affairs: “The Case for Partition in Western Sahara.”
Moroccan authorities are projecting confidence about a planned Nigeria-Morocco pipeline.
In Tunisia, a group of some 40 opposition figures, lawyers, and journalists are facing trial on charges of undermining state security.
Is Tunisia going to crack down on youth who haven’t done their military service?
Jeune Afrique’s Frida Dahmani interviews ex-parliamentary deputy Hatem Mliki about the idea of a “social state” in Tunisia.
Reuters: “Libya Announces First Bidding Round for Oil Exploration in 17 Years.”
Algerian authorities are cracking down on influencers, especially women accused of making indecent content.
VOA: “Voices Unheard: Living with disability in Libya.”
Greater Horn of Africa
Guido Lanfranchi and Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo for Clingendeal: “A Dangerous Frenemy: Averting a Showdown between Eritrea and Ethiopia.”
Fred Harter for The New Humanitarian:
More than two years after a cessation of hostilities ended a brutal civil war, Ethiopia’s Tigray region should be well along the road to recovery. Instead, its ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front Party (TPLF) is embroiled in a bitter internal spat that has paralysed politics and sparked fears of fresh conflict.
The dispute pits a faction led by TPLF chairman and wartime leader Debretsion Gebremichael against another helmed by TPLF deputy chairman, Getachew Reda, who signed the November 2022 cessation of hostilities in Pretoria and now leads the interim regional administration created by the deal.
Zecharias Zelalem at the European Council on Foreign Relations: “Deadly Skies: Drone warfare in Ethiopia and the Future of Conflict in Africa.”
Mike Corder in the AP: “Sudan Files Case to UN Court Alleging UAE Is Breaching Genocide Convention by Funding Rebels.”
Reuters: “Sudan's RSF and Allies Formalise Vision for Parallel Government.”
“I am deeply worried about reports of destruction of homes and livelihoods in North Darfur,” said Clementine Nkweta-Salami, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Sudan. “Civilians continue to pay the price. Access to Zamzam camp is nearly impossible, just when people need support the most. We need unimpeded humanitarian access to deliver life-saving aid.”
Zamzam camp is around 15 kilometres south of El Fasher town, the capital of North Darfur, which has been besieged by militia forces opposing the Government in Khartoum now for months. It opened in 2004 to shelter people uprooted by the war in the west of the country.
Shola Lawal at Al Jazeera: “Peacemaker or Peacebreaker? Why Kenya’s Good Neighbour Reputation Is Marred.”
Harun Maruf and Jeff Seldin at VOA: “Islamic State in Retreat after Offensive in Somalia's Puntland.”
UN News: “Drought and Dire Hunger Loom in Somalia, Warns UN Food Agency WFP.”
Mashriq
Tahani Mustafa for International Crisis Group: “Israel’s West Bank Incursions Highlight the Dilemmas of Palestinian Politics.”
Lila Hasan at Drop Site News: “Archiving Gaza: The Race to Save Evidence of War Crimes and Mass Destruction.”
Issam Kayssi at Carnegie’s Diwan:
On February 26, Lebanon’s parliament convened on the second day of its deliberations over the policy statement of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government. Under normal circumstances, the session would have been taken up with political speeches and other minutiae related to matters of governance. Yet, when Samy Gemayel, the leader of the Kataeb Party, took the floor, he ventured into more unsettling territory, talking about the fragmented historical consciousness of the Lebanese and the cycles of violence that continue to consume their country.
Jad Baghdadi at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy: “Lebanon’s public procurement and cement sectors are in urgent need of reform, to ensure fair practices in reconstruction and economic recovery efforts.”
Asli Aydintasbas in the Wall Street Journal: “A Fragile Peace for Turkey and the Kurds.”
Sajad Jiyad at the Century Foundation: “Iraq Walks a Tightrope into the New Trump Era.”
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s vice president for strategic affairs, has once again submitted his resignation. This is the second attempt by the former foreign minister and chief nuclear negotiator to vacate his position since taking office last autumn—both times under pressure from hardliners.
Andrea Carboni and Luca Nevola at ACLED:
Away from the high waters of the Red Sea, where they waged hundreds of attacks on commercial shipping, inside Yemen, the Houthis are grappling with growing domestic unrest. In recent months, the movement has carried out mass arrests of opposition figures, civil society groups, influencers, and humanitarian workers on charges of conspiring with the enemy. Increasingly restive tribes and alleged factional divisions add to the paranoia that characterizes Houthi rule, which they fear could be threatened if the country relapses into conflict.
Nowhere are these dynamics better illustrated than in Ibb, a Sunni-majority province in central Yemen that is home to nearly 4 million people and hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people.
Katherine Hearst for Middle East Eye: “Saudi Arabia Deporting Egyptian Activist Facing Life Imprisonment.”
Jonathan Saul and Jarrett Renshaw at Reuters: “Exclusive: US Mulls Plan to Disrupt Iran's Oil by Halting Vessels at Sea.”