Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 4/26/2024
News and commentary from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Mashriq.
Last week’s links here.
Sahel and West Africa
Chad heads toward elections on May 6. Helga Dickow argues that the outcome is predetermined:
I would argue that Chad’s three-year transition programme had a single objective: the long-term retention of power by [transitional President] Mahamat Déby. This objective has been pursued in four ways: violent oppression and intimidation; composition of the electoral institutions; approval of presidential candidates; and campaign strategies.
A first-round victory for Déby indeed appears highly likely. One key pseudo-opposition figure is Prime Minister Succès Masra - you can watch an interview with him here. As in Chad’s past, the participation of certain tame(d) opposition figures functions as a superficial boost to the legitimacy of the process rather than as a genuine challenge to the Dèby family.
Tensions have grown between Mali and Mauritania over an apparent Malian/Wagner Group incursion into Mauritania as well as violence against Mauritanian citizens in Mali. Mauritanian Defense Minister Hanana Ould Sidi visited Bamako on 20 April, and Mauritanian authorities recently summoned Mali’s ambassador to complain. For their part, the Malian authorities have not been shy about defying other governments in the region, but Mauritania is one neighbor they can ill afford to antagonize, for a host of economic and security-related reasons. Meanwhile, within Mali, a mass kidnapping generated protests against the state.
The Nigerian government expects to secure a $2.25 billion loan from the World Bank. Finance Minister Wale Edun appears (over)confident about Nigeria’s prospects, given the grim state of the economy:
Responding to concerns about debt sustainability, Edun highlighted the pivotal role of revenue generation. Oil revenue stands as a primary source, with efforts aimed at maximising its potential for the benefit of Nigerians. He noted that President Bola Tinubu has set ambitious targets to ramp up oil production, aiming to reach 2 million barrels per day from the current 1.6 million.
Worth a read: Nigeria’s National Security Advisor, Nuhu Ribadu, on “Addressing Multi-Dimensional Insecurity Challenges in Northern Nigeria.” As has been the case for years now, there is no shortage of talented people in Nigeria who have sophisticated understandings of insecurity - but there remains a gap between conceptualization and actual policy.
North Africa
A summit in Tunis on 22 April - where Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya discussed North African integration, but without Morocco and Mauritania in attendance - has caused diplomatic ripples in the region.
At Orient XXI (Ar), Farid al-Bahri traces the history of Libya’s Jewish population, and how it went from approximately 30,000 in 1911 when Italy colonized the country, to the departure of 90% of the Jewish population after Israel’s founding in 1948, to less than 500 by the time Muammar al-Qadhafi took power in 1969, to the last Libyan Jew dying in 2002.
Le Point interviews Moroccan feminist Asma Lamrabet about ongoing debates on another reform of Morocco’s personal status law.
Greater Horn of Africa
A new issue of Atar, an English-language Sudanese magazine, is out. See p. 22 for an article on how the national war has reached al-Fashir, capital of North Darfur State.
Also in Darfur, Musa Hilal, of the infamous Janjaweed militia, casts his lot with the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces.
An Al Jazeera English panel considers the controversy over proposed constitutional changes in Somalia.
At The Guardian, Fred Harter delves into coffee culture in Ethiopia.
Mashriq
Mass graves found in Gaza.
The UN’s Special Envoy for Syria:
Briefing ambassadors on the Security Council, Geir Pedersen called for a regional de-escalation, starting with an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
In addition to the regional spillover effects, he expressed deep concern over the ongoing conflict within Syria itself.
“There are in fact no signs of calm in any of Syria’s theaters – only unresolved conflicts, bubbling violence, and sharp flares of hostilities, any of which could be the kindling for a new conflagration,” he stated.
The New Humanitarian: “Inside Egypt's Secret Scheme to Detain and Deport Thousands of Sudanese Refugees.”
Will China help fund Saudi Arabia’s Neom project? The Line city, in particular, appears to be struggling. Meanwhile, Saudi authorities bet big on AI.