Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 6/28/2024

News and analysis from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Middle East

Last week’s links are here.

Sahel and West Africa

Mauritania holds presidential elections on June 29. DW (Fr) looks at the campaigning.

Senegal’s President Diomaye Faye participated (Fr) in the production of the country’s first barrels of oil through its Sangomar platform. Background here.

A new issue of the journal Africa is out. One interesting article is by Ismaël Maazaz, titled “Sticking Around or Fading Away: Water Patronage and Value in Chad.”

Jack Thompson and Ely Cheikh Mohamed Vadel on herders turned fishermen in Mauritania:

[Sidna Ali Ould Ahmed] describes his journey from the land to the sea as “impossible.” But a deadly combination of the climate crisis and escalating political tensions on the edge of the Sahara has forced the same previously unthinkable shift onto some 30,000 other herders in Mauritania. 

They now form the backbone of the country’s burgeoning fisheries sector. With climate change expected to displace more than a billion people around the world by 2050, the experience of Mauritania’s new fishermen offers clues to protecting and supporting those obliged to adapt to radically new ways of life.

North Africa

Wolfram Lacher, “Where Have All the Jihadists Gone? The Rise and Mysterious Fall of Militant Islamist Movements in Libya.” Lacher here makes not just an argument about Libya, but about the problematics of various terms and assumptions. From p. 6:

The rise of militant Islamists from 2011 onwards was also fuelled by the superficial appropriation of Islamist aesthetics and rhetoric by actors who wanted to stand out or conform. The abrupt disappearance of militant Islamist movements was also driven by this interplay of demarcation and imitation. In post-Gaddafi Libya, revolutionary Islamism was not least a fashion, jihadism an ephemeral youth culture. The pivotal experience of the fight against IS undoubtedly provided an important impetus for the habitus associated with Islamism to go out of fashion, and for other models for gaining social status to take its place. What requires explanation, however, is the rapidity with which this impulse spread through parts of society that had previously had little fear of contact with militant Islamists. Processes of imitation and the self-reinforcing weight of conformism can help to account for this.

The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime has posted their 2024 series of “country reports on Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Mali, Niger, Chad and Sudan.”

[The reports] chart the broader shifts currently underway in human smuggling through the two regions, which have seen hybrid smuggling surge in Libya, embarkations by foreign migrants rise in Tunisia, and Sudanese refugees increasing movement throughout North Africa and the Sahel. They also detail key political and security dynamics, including the worsening wars in Sudan and Mali, the unstable status quo in Libya, and the growth of political volatility across a number of countries in both regions.

Fréjus Quenum on the thorny relationship between the European Union and Tunisia when it comes to migration (Fr).

Greater Horn of Africa

Kenya’s Finance Bill triggered mass protests and the storming of parliament on June 25. From the AP: “The government says the changes are necessary to pay interest on national debt, reduce the budget deficit and keep the government running. Protesters see them as punitive, since the high cost of living already makes it hard to get by.” Kari Mugo:

[Protesters’] response [to the government’s initial concessions] was clear: “Reject, not amend.” As hundreds filled the Nairobi CBD, among the protestors, a youthful Gen-Z presence stood out. For many, this was their first protest. As protestors were met with an arsenal of tear gas, the occasional live bullet, rogue batons, water cannons, and hundreds of arrests, they criticized President Ruto and the excessive use of force, suggesting the government get more creative with tear gas flavors. In their crosshairs was also the IMF whose handwriting is visible in the Finance Bill. The effect on Tuesday, was a Nairobi CBD brought to a standstill as police violently pushed back protestors trying to reach the Parliament building. 

Kenyan President William Ruto withdrew the bill, and now protesters want him to resign.

Joshua Craze, Kholood Khair, and Raga Makawi: “Sudan Starves.”

Mohamed Kheir Omer on Eritrea - its regional roles, its diaspora, and its internal politics - at 33.

Mashriq

Iranians vote today (June 28) for a new president. AP:

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to directly undercut the candidacy of 69-year-old heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian, who has aligned himself with officials from the administration of former President Hassan Rouhani. Rouhani helped reach Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, an accord Pezeshkian has fully embraced in contrast with his five hard-line opponents, who want an agreement fully on Iran’s terms.

Azadeh Moaveni reports from Tehran. Helyah Doutaghi talks Iran with Momodou Taal on his podcast.

A new documentary from Al Jazeera English: “The Night Won’t End: Biden’s War on Gaza.”

Middle East Monitor: “Egypt and Israel Still in Dispute over Rafah Crossing.”

Pressure on Syrian refugees grows in Lebanon (Fr).