Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 6/7/2024
News and analysis from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Middle East
Last week’s links are here.
Sahel and West Africa
The New York Times: “U.S. Confronts Failures as Terrorism Spreads in West Africa.” I’m quoted in this article.
Mali is on strike (Fr) following the arrest of Hamadoun Bah, secretary-general of the National Union of Banks, Insurance Companies, Financial Institutions and Businesses of Mali.
Top Russian officials are touring Africa, with a focus on the Sahel:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov [was] expected in Chad's capital N'djamena Wednesday [June 5], continuing an African tour that has taken him to Guinea and Congo. Russian Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov has also been on the move in Africa, visiting Libya and Niger. The visits are seen by civil society and analysts as Russia's attempt to establish its troops in the Sahel region after military leaders seized power, sparking ideological differences over the presence of American and French troops in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger and Chad.
Senegalese migrants, expelled by Algeria and stranded in Niger, appeal to Dakar for help.
North Africa
Tarek Megerisi on Libya:
The end of Libya's cycles always looks suspiciously like their start. Against the backdrop of escalating skirmishes between armed groups and military buildups by intervening powers, Libya's politicians play out a familiar pantomime as they promote a new government from amongst themselves to replace the incumbent.
This time, they say, the government will lead to elections, though they never have a roadmap to a vote. This time, they say, the new government will unify the country while all actors tie themselves ever tighter to outside powers, and [eastern Libyan political-military entrepreneur Khalifa] Haftar never looks any closer to genuine cooperation. This time, they say, they will fight corruption and restore governance as they prepare mock cabinets of over thirty ministers but never any actual policies.
Also on Libya, two new publications discuss environmental challenges and climate change impacts.
China's Gotion High Tech will build Morocco's first EV battery gigafactory for a total cost of 12.8 billion dirhams ($1.3 billion), the Moroccan government said on Thursday.
Gotion High Tech is the latest company to invest in EV battery manufacturing in Morocco, which seeks to adapt its growing automotive sector to rising demand for electric vehicles.
Greater Horn of Africa
Grim news from central Sudan:
At least 150 people, including 35 children, are feared dead in a massacre in a village in central Sudan blamed on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group fighting the army.
[…]
Footage circulating on social media after Wednesday's raid showed dozens of bodies wrapped in white shrouds prepared for burial in Wad al-Nourah in Gezira state.
Amel Mukhtar reflects on Sudan’s past and present, and the tough situations in which Sudanese displaced abroad find themselves.
A report from the New Lines Institute argues that genocide is occurring in Ethiopia. From the Foreword:
This report situates the credible allegations of crimes against Tigrayans in the context of the Genocide Convention, as well as related doctrines within international criminal law. In doing so, it highlights possible implications for the responsibility of Ethiopia as a State as well as the need for a full criminal investigation. The report convincingly identifies at least a reasonable basis to believe that genocide was committed against Tigrayans as an ethnic group, including through mass killings, the use of starvation, and the destruction of critical infrastructure, as well as countless instances of rape and other acts of sexual violence. By foregrounding the question of genocide, the report opens the door to a fuller understanding of the severity and scale of the harms suffered by victims of this under-reported conflict.
Somalia has a won a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for 2025-2026. Some context here.
Mashriq
At the International Center for Counter-Terrorism, Kamaran Palani has a refreshingly non-alarmist perspective on the Islamic State. Here’s the abstract of his report:
ISIS was militarily defeated and lost territorial control in Iraq over six years ago. Since then, the group has struggled to mobilise support and restore its influence. This Policy Brief examines the contextual shifts in Iraq since 2017 that have hindered ISIS’s ability to radicalise and recruit, addressing the critical question: why is a resurgence of ISIS in Iraq unlikely? Drawing on field observations and previous research, this Policy Brief carefully argues that the decreasing prevalence of sectarian grievances, particularly among Iraqi youth, diminishes the potential for community support for ISIS and other forms of violent extremism compared to the post-2003 period. To substantiate this argument, the Brief analyses the decline of sectarian demands that once contributed to the emergence of violent extremist groups in Iraq. It also revisits the primary drivers of radicalisation in the pre-2014 period that facilitated ISIS’s rise and explores how post- Caliphate developments, including demographic changes, have altered people’s needs and concerns, diverging from the narratives ISIS previously used to attract recruits.
There are a lot of fast-moving parts when it comes to a proposed ceasefire for Gaza. Here’s Axios on the roles of Qatar and Egypt, and Reuters on the latest stances from Hamas. CNN summarizes a CIA assessment of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s current thinking:
A CIA assessment circulated among US officials this week concluded that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu likely judges he can get away without defining a post-war plan — even as the Biden administration has launched a full-court press to pressure him to bring an end to the conflict in Gaza.
Scott Lucas discusses some of the major candidates who have registered to contest Iran’s upcoming presidential election.