Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 8/23/2024
News and analysis from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Middle East
Last week’s links are here.
General
The Carnegie Endowment has released a collection entitled “The Military and Private Business Actors in the Global South: The Politics of Market Access.” Readers of this blog might be particularly interested in the chapters on Nigeria, Iran, Turkey, and Egypt. Here is an excerpt from the Egypt section:
The military has been spearheading the implementation of [President Abdel Fattah El-]Sisi’s ambitious state-led investment strategy and, as a result, is being integrated into strategic management of the economy. The crisis in Egypt’s public finances and economy, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and the first years of the Ukraine war, has only accelerated this transition. EAF [Egyptian Armed Forces] generals who head economically active military agencies now sit on policy-setting bodies in several important sectors (such as Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies and industrial development); direct the government procurement of specified goods; manage social welfare programs; and influence how the government approaches foreign debt, foreign and domestic investment, and savings. EAF commanders routinely join the president in meetings related to the economy and the state’s strategic investments. This increased involvement has led to a military-business relationship that provides a stream of military-managed public procurement contracts to favored private sector actors, but it has also bound these actors more closely to the ruling order, further constraining the autonomy of the private sector as a whole and discouraging its investment in the economy.
Sahel and West Africa
Chad plans to hold legislative, provincial, and local elections on December 29.
There is now a gush of reports warning that Burkina Faso’s military government is using conscription to punish dissenters and critics. Here’s one of the latest.
Starlink, although forbidden by the government of Niger, is gaining users in remote areas. Meanwhile, bad floods have hit the capital, Niamey.
The Nigerien junta explores a rapprochement with Libya’s Khalifa Haftar.
DW reports on Mauritania’s mourchidat - female religious guides.
Robert Brelsford in Oil & Gas Journal:
Ghana’s state-owned Petroleum Hub Development Corp. (PHDC) and a consortium of private-sector partners have formally broken ground on the previously announced first phase of the West African subregion’s first integrated downstream petroleum hub (OGJ Online, Aug. 12, 2024).
A groundbreaking ceremony for the multiphased megaproject’s Phase 1—including a 300,000-b/sd refinery, a petrochemical plant, and extensive storage and port installations—took place on Aug. 19 in Nawule, Jomoro, in Ghana’s Western Region, the office of Ghanaian President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo said in an official release.
North Africa
Hafed al-Ghwell writes about the future of Tunisia after incumbent President Kais Saied’s near-certain win in the October 6 elections:
It is highly probable he will argue for an extension to his time in office beyond the constitutional limit of two five-year terms by framing his first term, under the old constitution, as separate from the legal framework that is now in place. Alternatively, despite some barriers, constitutional amendments could become a focal point of his agenda if he wins a “majority” of public support at the election.
Wolfram Lacher in New Lines Magazine on how Khalifa Haftar and his family are enriching themselves in Libya:
This is a paradoxical state of affairs. Libya’s oil money, after all, is channeled through the National Oil Corp. (NOC) and the central bank. Both are headquartered in Tripoli and formally cooperate with [Prime Minister Abdul Hamid] Dabeiba’s government, rather than the rival administration led by Usama Hammad, which is based in Benghazi and provides a civilian facade to the rule of the Haftar clan. Officially, the central bank in Tripoli had not disbursed any funds to the Hammad government as of the time of writing. Opacity surrounds the financing of the large-scale projects in areas under the Haftars’ control — projects managed by an entity headed by one of Haftar’s sons, Belgasem, and a body that effectively reports to another, Saddam.
Speaking of the central bank, its top IT official Musaab Muslamm was kidnapped and then freed this week, as part of a wider power struggle over the bank that is still unfolding as I write.
Each camp calls for high turnout in the September 7 Algerian presidential elections - but for different reasons.
Greater Horn of Africa
AP: “Kenya to reintroduce some tax proposals that sparked deadly protests.”
New taxes are causing protests in Mogadishu as well.
Balqiis think tank: “The Strategic Framework for AUSSOM, the Post-ATMIS Mission in Somalia.”
Fiori Sara Berhane in Cultural Anthropology: “The Paradox of Humanitarian Recognition: Blackness, Predation, and Non-Statist Solidarities in the Migration of Eritreans to Europe.”
The Africa Report profiles the head of Ethiopia’s central bank, and wider issues of “liberalization.” Some additional background is here. See an enthusiastic take on unfolding economic reforms here. I’m no Ethiopia expert, but I am a skeptic of such reforms - and much of Ethiopia’s growth has been based on flouting World Bank/IMF formulas.
Relatedly, here is Duncan Miriri in Reuters discussing Ethiopia’s debt restructuring plans.
Abdi Sheikh in Reuters: “Somalia’s Bomb Disposal Experts Face Down Fear to Save Lives.”
Al Jazeera on cholera in Sudan.
Mashriq
Parliament has approved Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s “unity government.” Al Jazeera reports (video) from the scene. At Al Monitor, Adam Lucente discusses new Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and some of the other key members of the cabinet.
A team at Bloomberg asks what it will take to rebuild Gaza.
Mairav Zonszein at The Intercept:
Perhaps the most critical reason for Israeli society’s inability to force political change is that it holds the army sacrosanct and relies heavily on the military’s use of force to maintain a semblance of control and stability. It is a society that has over decades of constant conflict with Palestinians become convinced that any compromise or diplomacy makes Israel appear weak and can only lead to defeat, a sentiment that has grown manifold since October 7. Today, not a single Jewish opposition leader in Israel talks about a two-state solution and not a single Jewish Israeli party voted against a recent Knesset resolution opposing Palestinian statehood — showing that even those who vehemently oppose Netanyahu also reject Palestinian self-determination.
Mona Fawaz in The National: “The Sound of Silence Reigns as Beirutis Hold Their Breath.”
Marsin Alshamary at Brookings writes about sectarianism and proposed changes to the family law in Iraq. The proposed changes have garnered a lot of controversy and coverage especially because they would lower the age of marriage.
Maersk “opens the doors to its largest Logistics Park at Jeddah Islamic Port in Saudi Arabia.” On the history and politics of ports in the Gulf, see Laleh Khalili’s Sinews of War and Trade.