Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 9/6/2024

News and analysis from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Middle East.

You can find last week’s links here.

General

I wrote an article for the International Policy Journal arguing that the Democratic Party’s foreign policy elite is insular and largely content with platitudes rather than actual ideas.

Ilham Ibrahim, “Criminalizing the Caliphate”:

Analyzing the years leading up to the caliphate’s abolition in 1924 and the post-9/11 period which saw the relentless securitization of Muslim subjectivity, this paper argues that the very act of remembering and imagining the caliphate as a potential political configuration in the Muslim world has been criminalized. Anticipatory fear is the mechanism of criminalization, used to mitigate any substantial challenge to the hegemonic character of the modern nation-state—in this case, Islam. Both periods are defined by a fear of a future potentiality in which Muslims are the writers of their destiny and reclaim their subjectivity. The orientalism latent in both historical moments—projecting the image of an unchanging, uniform, backward caliphate—has held the concept captive, foreclosing its capacity to narrate itself into the future. Notwithstanding this criminalization, the ummatic memory of the caliphate has proven resilient, and actively recalling and narrating it can transform remembrance into resistance. Further, this criminalization begs the question of the extent to which Muslim imagination of the caliphate—as a medieval institution unfit for the modern age—is informed not by Muslims’ own experiential knowledge and history but by a discourse constructed for them.

The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) held its ninth summit since 2000 this week. Reuters and Semafor, among others, discuss the $51 billion in new Chinese loans.

Sahel and West Africa

A jihadist attack in Mafa village, Yobe State, Nigeria has killed scores of people. The New York Times gives some background.

Floods continue to devastate much of the region, from Nigeria to Mali, with the possibility of more on the way.

International Crisis Group: “Women’s Lives under Islamic State in Niger’s Tillabery.”

Sofia Christensen at Reuters:

One of the worst massacres in Burkina Faso's history has provoked a fierce public outcry from victims' relatives and religious leaders, piling pressure on the ruling junta of a country where spiralling insecurity has already stoked coups.

Islamist militants gunned down scores on Aug. 24 as residents of the north-central town of Barsalogho dug defensive trenches on the orders of the army, according to a group of affected families and an eyewitness account.

Bill Gates blogs about his recent trip to Nigeria and Ethiopia. The Continent’s Simon Allison reports on Gates’ many critics in Africa, particularly those who feel that Gates and his Foundation have pushed destructive agricultural policies.

Some pretty brutal political comedy from Nigeria.

Forthcoming in October: Samuel Fury Childs Daly, Soldier’s Paradise: Militarism in Africa After Empire.

North Africa

Algeria holds presidential elections on September 7. Dalia Ghanem argues that “the ruling elite will likely maintain their grip on power, ensuring continuity but offering little hope for meaningful progress. The deep-rooted structural issues, from economic dependence on hydrocarbons to limited political freedoms and political and diplomatic stagnation, are likely to persist.” 

Tunisia will hold presidential elections on October 6. A struggle occurred earlier this week between the Administrative Court and the electoral commission (the Independent High Authority for Elections). The court reinstated three candidates but the commission rejected the reinstatement and limited the field to just President Kais Saied and two others, Ayachi Zammel and Zouhair Maghzaoui. Zammel was also arrested earlier this week. The Tunisian political scientist Hamza Meddeb offers a critical take on these events, and on the election itself, in this interview (in French).

Meanwhile, a major assassination occurred in Libya:

One of the world’s most notorious people smugglers, who abused his position as a high-ranking member of the Libyan coastguard, has been shot dead in Tripoli, officials in Italy and Libya have said.

Abd al-Rahman Milad, known as Bija, was killed as he left the naval academy in Janzour, Tripoli, riding in a vehicle driven by a chauffeur. The car was hit by a barrage of heavy gunfire, Italian intelligence announced.

Jalel Harchaoui and Emadeddin Badi offer some context on the political background and aftermath of the assassination.

Also in Libya, the struggle over the central bank is not over. Ousted governor Sadiq al-Kabir wants to be reinstated. A dialogue supported by the United Nations between the two key parties to the dispute - the High State Council and the House of Representatives - has reached an agreement to appoint a governor within thirty days of September 3.

Ahmed Eljechtimi at Reuters: “A year after Morocco's devastating earthquake in the High Atlas mountains only some 1,000 homes out of 55,000 under reconstruction have been rebuilt, according to government figures, as thousands continue to live in tents under extreme heat in summer and freezing cold in winter.”

Greater Horn of Africa

Stephen Engle and Simon Marks at Bloomberg: “Djibouti Sees Positive Ethiopia Response to Port-Access Plan.”

Maram Mahdi and Kyle Hiebert at Middle East Eye:

Both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the opposing Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have made extensive use of digital propaganda. They share a mutual desire to whitewash their abuses while capturing the hearts and minds of the Sudanese people and foreign benefactors.

But it’s Elon Musk’s hands-off approach to X (formerly Twitter) that has enabled the RSF - a brutal paramilitary force headed by warlord Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo - to build an online facade of compassion, masking the group’s heinous atrocities.

Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab analyzes the situation in El Fasher, Darfur, Sudan.

Luke Patey in Environment and Security: “Oil, Gold, and Guns: The violent Politics of Sudan’s Resource Re-Curse.”

Alex Rondos, Hatim Badien, and Jawhratelkmal Kanu at the United States Institute of Peace:

As the fighting prolongs, the ability of warring parties to make comprehensive decisions on negotiations and implement commitments will continue to deteriorate. The SAF and RSF do not necessarily have centralized control over their broad coalitions, and the contradicting incentives among their fractured constituencies and allies (both inside and outside the country) will continue to shape engagement on peace talks or the lack thereof. Some of these critical stakeholders — mainly ethnic, religious, regional or financial actors — currently have a decisive influence behind the scenes. Their influence is only growing as the war goes on, and none of them agree with each other right now on a way to silence the guns and forge a path forward for Sudan.

Kheira Tarif for SIPRI: “From Conflict to Collaboration: Co-funding Environmental Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia.”

Mashriq

Zeina Shahla: “Diary of a Day in Syria’s Extreme Summer Heat.”

The BBC and the New York Times on a large joint U.S.-Iraqi operation against the Islamic State.

Amwaj Media: “Inside Iran's Move to Subdue Kurdish Foes in Iraq.”

Mujahed al-Saadi reports from Jenin in the West Bank for Drop Site News:

The raid in Jenin began on August 28, with Israeli special forces entering the city in civilian vehicles to reach the perimeter of the Jenin refugee camp, a stronghold of militant resistance to the occupation. Since then, Israeli troops have targeted several hospitals in Jenin by obstructing access and cutting off vital supplies. The move mirrors tactics by the Israeli military in Gaza, where every hospital has been targeted and only a fraction are partially functioning, leaving the health care system in ruins.

Over the past week, armored Israeli bulldozers have torn through Jenin, ripping up roads, tearing down shops and markets, and destroying critical infrastructure. According to the Jenin municipality, more than 70% of Jenin’s streets have been bulldozed; 20 kilometers of water and sewage networks, communication and electric cables have been destroyed; and water has been cut off from 80% of the city, including the entire refugee camp where a curfew has been imposed, preventing most residents from entering or leaving.

Lisa Hajjar and Basil Farraj in MERIP: “Israel Is Waging War on Palestinian Prisoners.”

Lucy Williamson at the BBC: “Hostage Killings Leave Israeli Protesters at 'Breaking Point'.”

The IMF:

Saudi Arabia’s unprecedented economic transformation is progressing well. Strong domestic demand is keeping non-oil growth robust while unemployment is at record lows. Inflation is contained and the current account surplus is rapidly narrowing. The recalibration of the authorities’ investment plans would help reduce overheating risks and pressures on fiscal and external accounts.

A forthcoming book by Nermeen Mouftah - Read in the Name of Your Lord: Islamic Literacy Development in Revolutionary Egypt.