West Africa, Horn, MENA: Links for 12/12/2025

News and analysis from Dakar to Riyadh.

Last week’s links can be found here.

Sahel and West Africa

In Benin, a group of officers led by Lieutenant Colonel Pascal Tigri attempted to overthrow President Patrice Talon on December 7. Nigerian airpower and Ivorian troops helped suppress the coup attempt, as did France’s logistical and intelligence support. Talon, first elected in 2016 and re-elected in 2021, is term-limited; the next elections are scheduled for April 2026. Clearly, key regional and Western powers wanted to block this coup - whether that is because they see Talon as particularly important, or whether that’s because they want to halt the series of coups in the region, or something else, I couldn’t say. Regional leaders, within the Economic Community of West African States, are openly concerned about the region’s trajectory. Meanwhile, is Tigri hiding in Togo?

A report from GRANIT looks at how insecurity in western Mali is affecting Mauritania, Senegal, and Guinea. Among other dynamics, the report considers increased displacement into Mauritania as well as obstacles to the movement of pastoralists.

Corinne Dufka, Niccola Milnes, and Rida Lyammouri for XCEPT: “Peuhl Women’s Lives under JNIM in the Central Sahel.” From the report (p. 37):

The study’s fieldwork reveals a vicious cycle in which alleged violations by government-affiliated security forces – such as unlawful killings, enforced disappearances, looting and pillaging, and sexual violence – have profoundly eroded trust in the state, thereby positioning JNIM as a more credible, if brutal, alternative. Crucially, a desire for vengeance – spurred by the death of family members in government operations – is driving men and, increasingly, women to support JNIM. These findings underscore a dangerous paradox: campaigns designed to reassert state authority are deepening local disaffection, legitimising jihadist narratives and fuelling insurgent growth across the Central Sahel. Nevertheless, the majority of women harshly criticised both JNIM and the state. In doing do, they expressed a strong preference for minimalist governance, valuing citizen security, freedom and the trusted authority of local leaders over state institutions or armed Islamist governance.

The authors’ observations here fit with a larger body of research and journalism showing that (a) the desire for revenge is a key factor drawing people to hardline groups such as JNIM and (b) women, and civilians more broadly, sometimes prefer the predictability of hardline rule to the rule of the state, although at bottom many people (as the authors say here) mostly want to be left alone.

Alexander Laskaris and Olivier Walther at The Conversation: “Kidnapping for Ransom in the Sahel: Analysis of 24 Years of Data Shows a New Trend.” The trend? Kidnappings of locals have soared, especially since JNIM’s coalescence in 2017.

At DW, Maxwell Suuk covers Ghana’s new gun amnesty program.

Horn of Africa

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, one of two major armed factions in the country’s civil war, captured, on December 8, a crucial oil field at Heglig. At Al Jazeera, Sidi Ahmed Ould Al-Emir explains the multi-faceted importance of Heglig, which sits literally on the border between Sudan and South Sudan. Ould Al-Emir writes, “Heglig represents the last major strategic position for the army in West/South Kordofan after the fall of el-Fasher, the capital of Darfur, and Babnusa in West Kordofan.” As of December 11, South Sudan had deployed its own troops to guard the Heglig field.

At Geeska, Suhaib Mahmoud writes about recent protests and clashes in Borama, northern Somalia.

The immediate spark was the government’s decision to allow once again a public presentation and celebration of the “Xeer Ciise” charter after weeks of tension in the coastal city of Zeila over the same event. The “Xeer Ciise” is a body of oral customary law regulating the affairs of Issa communities in Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somaliland. It was formally added in 2024 to UNESCO’s list of Intangible Cultural Heritage.

On the surface, an event to launch a book, which explains the charter, in Zeila could have been seen as a legitimate cultural celebration, especially after it’s UNESCO enlistment. Yet the choice of timing and place gave the event a different political meaning. Zeila is contested by the Gadabuursi and the Issa, and the region is highly sensitive because of the overlap of land, identity and symbolism between these two clans. It is also a moment shaped by regional rivalries over maritime corridors, access to the sea and spheres of influence. This turned what appeared to be a cultural occasion into a deeply political act.

CPJ:

The Committee to Protect Journalists calls on Ethiopian authorities to immediately release journalist Eyob Shimelis, who has been in detention since December 1 on accusations of spreading false information and defamation.

Police arrested Eyob, founder and reporter of TikTok-based Sidama News, which reports on corruption in Ethiopia’s southern Sidama state, at around 10 a.m. outside his home in the regional capital Hawassa and took him to the capital’s Addis Ketema sub-city police station, two people with knowledge of the case told CPJ, on condition of anonymity, citing safety concerns. Eyob was questioned about his recent reporting on alleged abuses by regional officials, they said.

Corruption was a key theme in Prof. Terje Østebø’s interview here on the newsletter a few months back.

Middle East and North Africa

Omar Kabbadj writes at AfriqueXXI about the African Cup of Nations, to be held in Morocco starting December 21. The GenZ212 protest movement, which flourished in Morocco in September and October, explicitly complained about money going to stadiums (especially in advance of the 2030 World Cup) over social services.

Human Rights Watch denounces authorities’ arrests of activists in Tunisia, part of the ongoing “conspiracy case.”

There were numerous reflections on the one-year anniversary of the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and on the career of Ahmad al-Sharaa and the new authorities. Here are a few links:

• The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy held a panel looking at questions of reconstruction, investment, justice, sovereignty, and more.

• Al-Majalla rounded up eleven different articles, interviews, and photos they have published over the past year, covering everything from a close-up view of Assad’s fall to Syria’s international relations.

• France24 had a discussion with the journalists Arthur Sarradin, Anthony Samrani, and Dana Alboz, reflecting on themes such as democracy and authoritarianism.

• At the New Humanitarian, Hazar Alyazji and Hanna Strid reflect on the psychological scars of the war.

In Yemen, Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen writes at Amwaj, “Israel’s success in targeting Houthi leaders has deepened the group’s security paranoia, prompting a massive wave of arrests…However, these measures may not be sufficient to counter Israel’s capabilities.” Meanwhile, the Southern Transitional Council is working to consolidate control over the Hadramaut region, while “hundreds of STC supporters took to the streets in Aden to call for the establishment of an independent state in the south.” Despite surface-level comity, meanwhile, the STC’s moves advantage the United Arab Emirates and are causing tensions with Saudi Arabia.

Cathrin Schaer at DW: “Less UN, Fewer US Soldiers - A New Era for Iraq?”

Iran got rain, but needs more amid a catastrophic drought. See here for a scientific discussion of how climate change is driving the drought. The authors note that this year’s drought is “exceptional,” but add, “If this trajectory continues, Tehran is likely to face more frequent droughts, reducing reservoir levels, limiting urban water supply, and presenting significant hazards to the vital systems of public health, energy, and food supply.”