West Africa, Horn, MENA: Links for 1/9/2026
News and analysis from Dakar to Riyadh.
The last round of links (from 12/19) can be found here.
General
Ken Opalo on eleven trends to watch in Africa in 2026.
The New Humanitarian on ten major humanitarian crises around the world.
Sahel and West Africa
Guinea’s ruler General Mamady Doumbouya, who took power in a 2021 coup, won 87% of the vote in the December 28 presidential election, according to official results. Doumbouya’s path loosely resembles that of Chad’s Mahamat Déby, who also took power in a 2021 coup before going on to win presidential elections in 2024. Déby, however, came to power in a far different way, preserving a family dynasty after his father’s battlefield death; Doumbouya overthrew a civilian president who had sought a third term. Meanwhile, in contrast to the model of soldier-turned-elected president, the military rulers of the central Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) have preferred indefinite “transitions” rather than these kinds of junta-dominated elections. In many ways, the net effect is the same whether there are elections or not, but it is interesting to see who wants the pseudo-legitimation of an election versus who prefers to keep the aura of full-fledged military ruler. Doumbouya will be inaugurated on January 17 for a seven-year term.
RFI’s David Baché writes that in Mali’s capital Bamako, “with a little patience, finding gas is no longer a challenge.” This return to quasi-normalcy follows months of a blockade imposed by jihadists. Baché adds, however, that fuel supplies are much more tenuous beyond the capital. For their part, jihadists have not been inactive, and attacked the Morila gold mine last weekend.
Solomon Ekanem at Business Insider: “Ghana’s 70,000 bpd Crude Oil Surge Positions It As Rising West African Oil Hub.”
Benin will hold legislative and local elections on January 11; presidential elections are scheduled to follow on April 12.
Horn of Africa
Following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sarr traveled there earlier this week. Amid denunciations of the deal from the African Union, Saudi Arabia, and others, Somaliland ruling party chairman Hersi Ali Haji Hassan told Al Jazeera, “There is no choice before us but to welcome any country that recognises our existential right.”
The Africa Report’s Olivier Caslin looks at how Djibouti is positioning itself vis-a-vis Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Lighthouse Reports: “How We Investigated Ethnically Motivated Killings by the Sudanese Armed Forces.”
Ayin Network’s El Fasher correspondent recounts the city’s fall to the Rapid Support Forces in October:
Monday, October 27, was the most difficult day; the sound of the call to prayer that is raised daily in the mosques was absent, and I had a feeling that something serious and dangerous had happened in the city. After the sound of the large explosions subsided, I left the room where I was staying and peeped through the opening of the house door, where I saw new combat vehicles standing in front of the house, which is only 500 metres north of the Joint Force Command and one kilometre south of the Army Artillery Command.
I rushed back to the room, spoke in a low voice to my cousin and told him about it. As soon as we fell silent, we heard voices and conversations in different dialects that we had never heard before, which confirmed our suspicion that the Rapid Support Forces had taken control of the city.
It wasn’t long before members of the RSF stormed a house in the first-class neighbourhood, demanding that mobile phones be handed over to them at gunpoint. They also broke the locks on the closed doors and looted whatever property they could, accusing us of being affiliated with the army and the joint forces.
Middle East and North Africa
At Nawaat, Majdi Ouerfelli writes about looming conflict between Tunisian President Kais Saied and the Tunisian General Labor Union, as the Union readies for a general strike on January 21.
Meanwhile, Moroccan lawyers are on strike over new regulations.
Hossam el-Hamalawy‘s forthcoming book (May 2026) on Egypt looks excellent.
Hila Amit for 972 Magazine: “Why Israelis Are Leaving in Record Numbers.” An excerpt:
In total, over 150,000 Israelis have left the country in the past two years alone, rising to over 200,000 since the current government took power.
For this article, I interviewed several Israeli Jews who have left the country over the past two years. Their testimonies point to a profound loss of faith in the Zionist project itself — one that may signal a broader systemic unraveling. Mass emigration during what the state frames as an existential crisis exposes a central contradiction: If Israel is meant to serve as a safe haven for Jews, why are so many choosing to flee it? This exodus challenges core tenets of Zionist ideology and reveals the limits of the collective responsibility narratives that have long bound Israeli society together.
Malaika Tapper for the FT: “Syria Readies Offensive After Clashes with Kurdish Forces in Aleppo.”
Here is a mini-roundup of reports and analyses regarding Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman:
Southern Transitional Council (STC) leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi reportedly fled Aden to Berbera, northern Somalia/Somaliland on January 7.
Abubakr Al-Shamahi at Al Jazeera: “After STC Hubris, Dream of South Yemen Looks Further Away.”
Nadwa al-Dawsari at the Middle East Institute: “Following the STC’s takeover of Hadramawt and al-Mahra, Saudi Arabia moved quickly to engage Qatar and Oman at the highest levels. After the UAE announced its withdrawal from Yemen on December 30, 2025, the Saudi and Omani foreign ministers met in Riyadh to discuss the situation in Yemen as well as pathways toward de-escalation and a political solution. These engagements indicate a regional realignment and coalition-building effort beyond the UAE. In parallel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China convened a trilateral meeting in which they expressed support for an “inclusive” political solution in Yemen.”
Farea Al-Muslimi at Chatham House: “No country…was more immediately unsettled than Oman. The STC’s seizure of Al-Mahra, Yemen’s easternmost governorate which shares a 300-kilometre border with Oman, represented Muscat’s most acute external national security threat in decades. For the normally quiet and stable sultanate, the appearance of the flag of the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen on its doorstep reopened deep historical anxieties. Independent South Yemen once fuelled the Dhofar insurgency that plunged Oman into nearly a decade of war during the 1970s.”
At the Guardian, Deepa Parent and William Christou discuss the protest wave in Iran, with a focus on dynamics in Kurdish areas. At Amwaj, Bijan Khajehpour asks, “Will [President Masoud] Pezeshkian’s ‘Economic Surgery’ Save Struggling Iranians?” Human Rights Watch documents repression by authorities.