Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 5/24/2024

News and analysis from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Middle East

Find last week’s roundup here.

Sahel and West Africa

Anna Wood writes about Senegalese citizens’ perspectives on their new president:

First impressions of Diomaye are strong. As I went about asking about the new government in the small informal settlement in Grand Dakar where I have conducted long-term ethnographic fieldwork, people first described him as “yaru,” (Wolof for polite, well-educated, and well-raised) before further commenting on his calm and composed demeanor (téye, dal). This is an image that Diomaye has cultivated for himself, describing his approach to government as one of humility. It contrasts with Sonko, who, in many eyes, has come to be associated with the unrest (xeex ak xuloo) of previous months and years. As I asked about the new government, many recounted the day in 2023 when stray tear gas canisters landed in their homes.

Niger’s military head of state receives two controversial anti-French influencers (Fr).

Are northern Malian rebels and jihadists headed towards a non-aggression pact? (Fr)

Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks one year in office May 29 - how has he done? I don’t agree with all of this assessment (for starters, it’s strange to say that Tinubu won “against all odds” - he had been a top figure in Nigerian politics for decades), but the author makes many good points.

North Africa

Guillaume Soto-Mayor: “Libya, Tunisia, and Niger as Case Studies for Counter-Productive Anti-Migration Policies: Sustaining Abuses and Criminality.”

Prison sentences for two Tunisian commentators under the Decree Law 54, legislation that critics see as a massive limitation on freedom of expression.

A gold-trafficking bust (Fr) at Misrata Airport in Libya, implicating numerous customs officials.

Horn of Africa

A Q&A with two of ACLED’s Sudan researchers:

Are there any political forces that offer hope for Sudan today?

[Ali Mahmoud] ALI: All the political parties and figures are irrelevant. Nobody has any power to mediate between the main two rivals, the SAF and RSF. The divisions remain deep: The RSF is fighting not just against the west of the country but the central and northern tribes that traditionally control the government.

Taqaddum [The Sudanese Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces, led by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok] has some legitimacy with the international community. Theoretically it’s the same alliance of Forces of Freedom and Change. But they took over the 2019 revolution, and, since they became part of the transitional government, they neglected many things, including the revolution’s goals. They just replaced Bashir’s National Congress Party. They allied with the security forces who killed hundreds of protestors; now they seem to be with the RSF, and they criticize them less than the SAF. 

The only political party that seemed somehow neutral is the Sudanese Communist Party, but that also doesn’t have so much influence. It’s only popular with unions, students, and state employees. It was always negative about the transitional government negotiations and withdrew from the alliance of forces for freedom and change. 

The Hiraal Institute is mapping areas of government control and Al Shabab control in Somalia.

Ann Neumann on the kidnapping ordeal her Ethiopian fixer went through.

Mashriq

The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi offers an occasion to reflect on his tenure in office (2021-2024). Two of the most significant events of his presidency were ones that he reacted to, rather than instigated: the Woman, Life, Freedom protests of 2022-2023, and the October 7 attack and its aftermath. On the protests, one of the most profound analyses I read can be found here. On Iran and the Gaza War, this article by Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr is worth a read. And this piece, written by Sajjad Safaei after Raisi’s election, remains highly relevant for understanding his background.

Looking ahead, obviously speculation abounds now, especially about who will eventually become Supreme Leader after the death of Ali Khamenei (in office since 1989). It’s worth reading about Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, and here is an interesting profile of another cleric, Alireza Arafi.

In other news, here’s Ruwaida Amer on Gaza:

More than seven months into the war, the Israeli military’s long-term plans for the Gaza Strip are becoming clearer. From satellite imagery and eyewitness testimonies, it appears that the army is destroying homes, bulldozing land, and erecting structures that will enable it to operate within Gaza for years to come.

Here’s a readout of American National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s latest trip to Saudi Arabia and Israel.