Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 6/14/24
News and analysis from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Middle East.
Find last week’s links here.
General
Ken Opalo has a great piece about the weakness of the Left in many African countries. For me, Part III is more compelling than Part II - the structural constraints and repression the Left faced loom larger to me as an explanation of the Left’s weakness than do African Leftists’ own attitudes. But with that said, Opalo offers a compelling and holistic explanation and has a refreshing sympathy for the Left.
Sahel and West Africa
Malian authorities released the detained union leader Hamadoun Bah on June 10, ending a bank strike (Fr) - and suggesting, to me at least, that the country’s junta fears organized labor more than it fears professional politicians. Labor, too, seems to me to have some institutional power and grassroots support in ways that many longtime politicians don’t.
Give Senegal’s new president a little space and time, says I.
On the 31st anniversary of Nigeria’s annulled 1993 elections, Azeezat Olaoluwa argues that coups are unlikely there these days (despite being in a coup-prone neighborhood!). Olaoluwa points to two key factors: the poor record of past military regimes, and the military’s own seeming aversion to taking power post-1999, even when opportunities surface. Yet Olaoluwa also points out that younger Nigerians do not share the older generation’s memories of venal military rulers, which can make for some generational splits in terms of how a possible coup might be received.
Hassan Ould Moctar has a great piece about refugees, tensions, and geopolitics in eastern Mauritania. An excerpt:
Mauritania itself is ambivalent about how to respond to this new conjuncture. While Niger has repealed an EU-backed migrant smuggling law and suspended EU capacity-building missions in the country, Mauritania has decided to enhance its EU security cooperation – most recently in the form of a migration partnership deal, stridently opposed by much of the Mauritanian population. At the same time, however, it has ruled out any US military presence in the country and has kept diplomatic and economic channels open with Sahelian military leaders, even as they have come under international sanctions.
Cote d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara gears up for a fourth term (Fr).
North Africa
Anne Wolf has a new article about the fall of the Ben Ali regime in Tunisia: “How Erroneous Beliefs Trigger Authoritarian Collapse: The Case of Tunisia, January 14, 2011.” From the introduction:
I propose that the Ben Ali regime collapsed on January 14, 2011, because of a set of erroneous beliefs and their consequences, specifically: (1) a security official’s misconception that Ben Ali was at the airport that day to flee the country, which led him to defect; (2) Ben Ali’s decision to join his family on a plane to Saudi Arabia following this defection, believing he could return to Tunisia promptly; and (3) the widespread belief that his leaving constituted an “escape” in that he did not intend to come back.
Wolf’s latest book, on the Ben Ali regime, is here.
Algeria is digitizing its archives (Fr).
Sherif Dhaimish remembers his father, a Libyan cartoonist in exile.
Greater Horn of Africa
A severe funding shortfall has forced the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) to slash food rations and halt cash transfers to all refugees in Kenya, threatening the well-being of already vulnerable households.
This month, 630,000 people in the Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei refugee camps will receive only 40% of the recommended minimum calorie intake needed to stay healthy. The cuts began in May.
Small Arms Survey on South Sudan: “Dominance without Legitimacy: Tong Akeen Ngor’s Reign in Northern Bahr el Ghazal State.”
The Economist interviews Muse Bihi Abdi, president of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland.
Mashriq
Six candidates are running for president of Iran.
The journal Critical Studies on Terrorism published a roundtable entitled “Where is Palestine in Critical Terrorism Studies?”
Astrid Bourlond on state control of khutbas in Jordan:
Under previous legislation (related to counter-terrorism, the protection of the state, etc.), it was possible for the regime to ban a preacher based on his speech in a mosque. Under the new legislation, a preacher can also be arrested because he speaks about another topic than the one imposed or because he addresses it in a way that differs from the one desired by the state. What transpires from interviews with several Jordanian preachers is that the rule is loosely applied in some cases and very strictly in others. The red line pertains to political speeches. As soon as preachers touch upon political issues during their sermon, they receive warnings and/or are banned from Jordanian mosques.
Benjamin Isakhan and Lynn Meskell: “Reconstructing Heritage After War: What We Learned from Asking 1,600 Syrians about Rebuilding Aleppo.”