Dakar to Riyadh: Links for 7/5/2024

News and analysis from the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn, and the Middle East.

Last week’s links are here.

General

The Global Observatory: “ ‘There is No Safe Place for Civilians in Conflict’: Q&A With Hichem Khadhraoui.”

A third change is this disturbing and growing idea that it’s acceptable to target civilians. There is a line of thinking that goes something like, “Why are they in the line of fire if they are not supporters of Hamas, or supporters of Ukraine or Russia?” or wherever. Directly targeting civilians is never acceptable – legally, operationally, or morally. The even greater danger is if the direct targeting of civilians becomes the norm. Adding to that is the combination of the lack of access to basic services and the changing nature of conflicts, which makes it so that humanitarian actors are finding it extremely difficult to carry out their basic duties. Over one hundred and ninety UN staff have been killed in Gaza. Accessing basic services like food is a constant challenge. But civilians, of course, bear the brunt of all of it.

Sahel and West Africa

Fanny Pigeaud and Ndongo Samba Sylla: “The Revolt Against Françafrique: What Is Behind the “Anti-French” Sentiment?”

In a fight over the border town of Mansila (Fr), Burkina Faso’s grim situation is on display. The army took over 100 casualties when it lost the town to jihadists on June 11, and it took weeks for the armed forces to take the town back.

Line Mafotsing: “In the Female Genital Mutilation Debate, Gambia’s Traditions Clash With Women’s Rights.”

Hannah Hoechner and Yagana Bukar are writing up the results of some fascinating research on Boko Haram’s attitudes towards Western education - which are more ambivalent than one might expect. For The Conversation, they talk about the attitudes of former insurgents; for Premium Times, they talk about why and how Qur’an schools have been scapegoated in the conflict. Also relevant is Hoechner’s book on Qur’an schools in Nigeria.

I wrote briefly about Mauritania’s recent presidential elections here.

North Africa

Tunisia will hold presidential elections on October 6. Al Jazeera:

Tunisian President Kais Saied has called a presidential election for October 6, setting himself up for possible re-election as many of his political opponents are behind bars.

Announcing the date in an official decree on Monday, Saied did not confirm whether he would seek re-election but is widely expected to stand for another five-year term.

Frédéric Bobin: “Between the French Far Right and Algeria, the Stage Is Set for a Showdown.”

International Commission of Jurists: “Libya: Draft Reconciliation Law Is an Opportunity for Accountability and Justice.”

Greater Horn of Africa

Ken Opalo in the first part of a three-part series on Kenya’s recent protests. See also Nanjala Nyabola on the “polycrisis” in Kenya.

Alden Young on Sudan:

The United States should focus on the cessation of hostilities rather than worrying about the exact shape of the peace agreement that is reached between the relevant parties. The reason for this focus is that any peace agreement reached in the midst of current hostilities is likely to only hold for a short period of time before it has to be renegotiated. Peace in Sudan is likely to be a process rather than a final result.

Joshua Craze: “Rule By Militia” (on Sudan as well). An excerpt:

Militias are often taken as a sign of weak or absent government, the result of renegade actors operating in the wake of state collapse. Such a narrative could be told through a roll call of fallen dictators—from Mohamed Siad Barre in Somalia through to Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya—whose removal seemed to result in the death of the state and the emergence of militias that pick over its carcass. But these lapsarian lessons about the evils that befall a society after state collapse occlude more than they reveal. The reality is that many militias active around the globe today were created by states. In the aftermath of the economic crises of the 1980s, governments wracked by debt found militias an efficient way of managing restive populations.

Chinedu Okafor: “Why European Warships Docked in Somalia.”

Christopher Anzalone:

On the battlefield, al-Shabaab, unlike IS in Iraq and Syria, has a history of preferring to make strategic withdrawals when facing major offensives and return to towns, villages, and other newly liberated regions when the SNA [Somali National Army] and clan militia move on to other areas. This continues to prevent the SFG [Somali Federal Government] from solidifying its control and implementing new governance structures and systems to combat al-Shabaab’s appeal to local civilians’ desire for stability and a semblance of order. The SNA also continues to rely heavily on its U.S.-trained Danab and Turkish-trained Gorgor special forces units, risking blunting these units from performing at their highest level of capability in what they are uniquely trained to do. Despite security improvements in Mogadishu, al-Shabaab retains the capacity and capability of carrying out complex attacks in the heart of the federal capital as well as attacks on SNA and allied clan militia forces. In central Somalia, al-Shabaab has succeeded in reversing many of the territorial gains made during what the SFG has called the “first phase” of Operation Black Lion during its first year.

Mashriq

Iran is holding runoff elections for the presidency today (July 5). The two candidates are Saeed Jalili and Massoud Pezeshkian. You can read a profile of Jalili here and a profile of Pezeshkian here, both from Associated Press. A discussion of first-round results and reactions can be found here.

Omar Shaban: “A Proposal for a Gaza Reconstruction Council.”

A Sana’a Center editorial: “The Houthi Crackdown on Yemeni Voices and Civil Society: Silence is Not an Option.”

Associated Press: “Israel Turbocharges West Bank Settlement Expansion with Largest Land Grab in Decades.

Marcia Lynx Qualey in MERIP: “Speculative Climate Futures in Arab Literature.”